English · livello B2. Leggi il testo in inglese e allena la comprensione. Il video con audio e sottotitoli sincronizzati è in arrivo sul canale YouTube.
Scientists are watching the Pacific Ocean closely as what could be one of the most powerful climate events in recorded history rapidly builds beneath the surface. According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the probability of an El Niño — a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific that reshapes weather patterns across the globe — emerging by July now sits at sixty-one per cent.
A super El Niño is defined by sea surface temperatures in a key stretch of the central Pacific rising more than two degrees Celsius above normal. Only three have happened in recorded history: in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. According to Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, there is roughly a fifty per cent chance of the event becoming the strongest in the historical record.
The impacts of El Niño are felt the world over. From diminished fish stocks off the coast of Peru to "incredible flood years" in the United States, the northern tier is usually warmer than during winter. Drought and wildfire-related extremes become particularly concerning. In 2026 or 2027, a strong El Niño layered on top of already elevated baseline temperatures could increase the risk of unusually intense fires in normally damp regions.
With only three previous super El Niños on record, scientists urge caution about overstating predictions. As Roundy puts it, the foundations of any forecasts based on a small sample of past events should not be as confident as we are heading into a climate system running hotter than at any point in our post-industrial era.
El Niño — periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperature — temperature of the top layer of the sea. Drought — long period without rain. Baseline — starting reference level. To overstate — to exaggerate. To layer on top — to add on top of something existing.
Why is the combination of El Niño with rising baseline temperatures so worrying? What can individuals and communities do to prepare for extreme weather events?
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